日銀総裁に白川氏事実上内定：Mr. Shirakawa to be BOJ Chief金融引き締めの予兆？：Sign of Restrictive Monetary Policy?本日の「International Herald Tribune」の記事（下のリンク参照）によると、白川方明日銀副総裁が政治の提案する3人目の総裁候補として両院で所信聴取を受けて、いよいよ総裁に決まるようである。これで政治的理由による総裁空白の問題は解決に向かう。しかしながら大蔵省出身の渡辺博史氏の副総裁就任については、民主党が反対する可能性が高い。
誰がなるにせよ、日銀総裁が決まることは、空白のままでいるよりはましに決まっている。特に世界経済が金融の混乱で動揺している現在、日本が果たすべき役割は大きく、そのために日銀総裁のイニシアティブが重要となる。その意味で、総裁が決まることは望ましい動きといえるであろう。
しかし、忘れてならないのは、日銀の歴史を見ると、日銀出身の総裁は景気刺激策よりはインフレ抑制策を重視する傾向があるのに対して、大蔵出身の総裁は金融引き締めよりも景気刺激策を取る場合が多かったということである。そのために、バランスという意味で、総裁は日銀出身者と大蔵出身者が交代に就任jしていたとも解釈できる。その意味で日銀生え抜きの白川総裁の就任は、今後金融引き締め策が採用される予兆とも取れる。日本経済が米国経済の影響で減速している中で、金融引き締め策が採用されるとすれば、それは決して望ましい動きとはいえないであろう。
Article:"Nominee for Japan Central Bank Chief to Stand Confirmation Hearing at Parliament"
International Herald Tribune (4/8/2008)
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/08/business/AS-FIN-Japan-Central-Bank.phpIt is reported in the IHT news article linked above that Masaaki Shirakawa, who is a former BOJ (Bank of Japan) executive director and the government's third nominee for the head of Japan's central bank, was to stand his confirmation hearings in both houses of parliament, a move to end the political vacuum for the bank's top position. However, the problem will remain regarding the appointment of a deputy governor, since the government's nominee for that position used be a finance ministry official, a fact that the opposition parties are likely to denounce.
Whoever he might be, it is much better to fill the BOJ's top position than leaving it vacant at the time of financial turmoil in the global economy, where Japan should play a more active role in stabilizing the situation through international cooperation and policy coordination. Here, the initiative of the Bank of Japan's head seems crucially important. In this sense, the appointment of Mr. Shirakawa as the BOJ governor would be a welcome development.
However, one should keep in mind that in the history of the Bank of Japan, those governors who are originally from the BOJ tended to be conservative in monetary policy with more emphasis on curbing inflation than stimulating the economy, whereas those who came from the Finance Ministry have more often adopted stimulus measures rather than restrictive monetary policies. That may have been one of the reasons why the BOJ governorship has alternated between the BOJ and the Finance Ministry officials, namely for balancing purposes. In this context, appointment of Mr. Shirakawa originally from the BOJ as the bank's governor should be regarded as a possible sign of restrictive monetary policy in the near future, and that might not be a welcome development when the Japanese economy seems to be slowing down along with the U.S. economy.
- 2008/04/08(火) 22:52:11|
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