情報発信

野党を扱えない老兵たち：Old Guards Cannot Handle Opposition

新世代のリーダーが必要：New Generation of Leaders Needed

Newsweekの今週号に、なぜ安倍晋三氏も福田泰夫氏も小沢民主党による強硬な反対をうまく扱えずに政権を突然投げ出すことになってしまったかについて良い説明が載っている。下にリンクされた記事によると、主な理由は、二世や三世も含めた自民党の古い政治家が半世紀以上にわたって国会で弱い野党をうまく扱ってきた成功体験があるからほかならないという。今や与党が国会の両院で多数を支配している状況ではなくなり、難しい反対に直面して、この政治的現実をどう扱っていいかわからないというのが実情であろう。
もしこの説明が正しければ、それは次期首相候補の麻生太郎氏や与謝野馨氏にとっても重大な意味を持ってくる。どちらが首相になるにせよ、当面は期待が先走るので支持率が多少高まるかもしれないが、政治的現実が基本的に変わらない限り、それは急速にしぼんでしまうであろう。したがって、次期首相が選ばれ次第、総選挙が行われる可能性が高いといわれている。もちろんそうなっても何も変わらず、政治的混乱が長引き、将来にわたって首相がころころ変わる状況が続くであろう。
このようなどうしようもない混乱を避けるためには、老兵ではなく新しい世代の政治リーダーが出てきて、政党の再編と再構築を促し、政治信条と政策中心の新しい政治的連立ができるようにする必要があろう。
Article:
"Why Japan's Rulers Still Can't Deal With a Loyal Opposition"
Newsweek (9/15/2008 Issue)
http://www.newsweek.com/id/157532

It is interesting to find a good explanation in the current issue of Newsweek why Mr. Yasuo Fukuda as well as Mr. Shinzo Abe could not handle the strong opposition of the Ozawa Democratic Party, resulting in their abrupt resignation as prime minister. According to the article linked above, the main reason seems to be the successful experience that "many old warhorses of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)" including the second and third generations of them have had in dealing with relatively weak oppositions in the Diet for more than half a century. Now that they are facing a genuine opposition without having a majority in both houses, LDP leaders cannot adjust themselves to handle the political reality effectively.

This explanation, if it is correct, should have a serious implication on such candidates for next prime minister as Mr. Taro Aso and Mr. Kaoru Yosano, who are among the typical "old warhorses of the LDP." Once either of them is selected as new prime minister, the popularity rating should go up, based on public expectations as usual. However, it might well shrink quickly unless the political reality in the Diet fundamentally changes. For this reason, it is said that general elections are likely to be called right after the selection of the new prime minister. Needless to say, that would not change anything, but rather prolong the current political chaos, probably including frequent changes in premiership, into the future.

To avoid this kind of uncontrollable chaos, a new generation of political leaders, not the old guards, are needed to hasten reshuffling and reorganization of political parties, resulting in formation of new coalitions based on political beliefs and policy orientation in Japan.

1. 2008/09/08(月) 15:12:02|
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