日韓新時代開幕か？：New Era in Japan-S Korea Relations?両首脳とも国内で不評：Both Leaders Unpopular at Home本日付の「International Herald Tribune」の記事（下のリンク参照）によると、李明博（イ・ミョンバク）韓国大統領が訪日し、2005年以来初めての日韓首脳会談を行った。両首脳とも、今回の会談の重要性を強調して、「日韓新時代の幕開け」を宣言し、特に北朝鮮の非核化の問題や両国間の貿易促進の問題などを話し合った。これは両国の前リーダーのもとで緊張と対立が続いた日韓関係にとって、新しい気分をもたらす展開といえる。
しかしながら、両首脳とも新しく就任したばかりであるが、すでに自国内での支持率が下がってきており、その低下が急激なために、それぞれの与党のメンバーでさえも現在の政権が有効な政策の舵取りができるかどうか心配し始めている。このことは、両首脳が今回どんな合意に達したとしても、議会の賛成を取り付けて合意を実行に移すことができる保証はないことを意味する。さらに少なくともこの2人のうち1人は、今年中にあると思われる総選挙後にはトップの座にとどまっていないかもしれない。
したがって、両首脳はさらに議論を呼ぶ政策を打ち出すよりも、まず自分たちが以前獲得していた支持率と人気を取り戻すよう全力を尽くすことから始めるべきではないだろうか。政治的な支持基盤を固めることこそ、国内政策でも外交政策でも成功するための必要条件だからである。
Article:"Japan, South Korea Resume Summit Talks, Discuss North Korea, Bilateral Issues"
International Herald Tribune (4/21/2008)
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/21/asia/AS-GEN-Japan-South-Korea.phpIt is reported in the IHT article linked above that South Korea's new President Lee Myung-bak is now visiting Japan to resume the first official summit talk between Japan and South Korea since 2005. Both Prime Minister Fukuda and President Lee are emphasizing the importance of their meeting to "open a new era in Japan-South Korea relations," especially concerning international issues such as North Korea's nuclear disarmament and expanding bilateral exchanges between the two economies. This is certainly a refreshing development in Japan-South Korea relations after several years of ambivalence and antagonism under the previous leaders in the both nations.
However, we need to recognize the fact that these two leaders, although newly appointed, have already been losing popular support in their respective countries. Actually, their popular approval ratings are so low that even their own party members are beginning to worry about the effectiveness of the current administration in policymaking. This means that, whatever they agree on this time, there would be no assurance that their agreements could be approved and implemented through legislative processes. Even worse, at least one of them may not be able to survive general elections which should come later this year.
Therefore, the both leaders are advised to try harder at home for regaining the wide support and popularity that they once had before embarking on new, but rather controversial, initiatives. It is needless to say that having a solid ground for political power is necessary for successful policymaking domestically as well as diplomatically.
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